Posts by Doubting Bro

88

British Sociologist Predicts Possible Collapse in Jehovah's Witness Numbers

by slimboyfat in

jw
friends

a newly published article by british sociologist david voas argues jehovah's witnesses may be about to experience a collapse in numbers.

contrary to claims by american sociologist rodney stark who predicts strong future growth for jehovah's witnesses, voas shows that jehovah's witnesses' efforts at recruiting new members have become increasingly unsuccessful over the past few decades: the rate of increase has steadily declined, and the number of hours each publisher must preach to produce an extra convert has gone up substantially.

voas suggests a reason for the stagnation may be that there is a natural limit to the number of people in a given population that are susceptible to conversion to sectarian groups like jehovah's witnesses - the 'carrying capacity' of the population, and that the limit has largely been reached.

Doubting Bro

I agree that the number of pioneers to publishers has increased but you have to take that with a grain of salt since the pioneer hours were cut by 1/3rd (from 90 to 60). That helped create a bit a bump. Still, I agree that putting that much time in (whether 90 or 60 hours per month) shows a level of committment. Overall hours is a function of increase in number of people since the WTS is still reporting increases although they are not increasing at the level they once were. The 15 min publisher is not a valid argument since there are very few that even qualify for that "provision" and at best it was a one year bump. Interestingly, the average hours per month in the US is down slightly (from close to 10 to close to 9). I anticipate that number will increase this year due to the bump of allowing both parents count the family study.

On the blood issue, I'm friends with a non-JW health care worker at a larger hospital who deals with JWs on a fairly regular basis (as regular as you can with a religion that comprises about .05% of the population in the US). This person told me that if the HLC is not involved in a blood case, between 1/3rd & 1/2 of the JWs will compromise. Of course, if the HLC is brought in, that percentage drops significantly. Still, even if half of the JWs are willing to sacrifice their life, I agree that is a significant committment. But, if you were to go back 20 years, I'd be willing to bet that the percentage that would take blood would be much less. Again, this is just one person's observation but I take them at their word.

I think the committment level starts showing itself with the small things and that eventually leads to the big things. That's why I can't see the sudden collapse but more of a steady decline. Eventually, the apathy and disobedience, the damping of enthusiasm and commitment will catch up unless something is done to stem the tide. I really think WT leadership is well aware of the trend but hasn't figured out what to do to stop it. I'm sure they're hoping the big A happens soon.

88

British Sociologist Predicts Possible Collapse in Jehovah's Witness Numbers

by slimboyfat in

jw
friends

a newly published article by british sociologist david voas argues jehovah's witnesses may be about to experience a collapse in numbers.

contrary to claims by american sociologist rodney stark who predicts strong future growth for jehovah's witnesses, voas shows that jehovah's witnesses' efforts at recruiting new members have become increasingly unsuccessful over the past few decades: the rate of increase has steadily declined, and the number of hours each publisher must preach to produce an extra convert has gone up substantially.

voas suggests a reason for the stagnation may be that there is a natural limit to the number of people in a given population that are susceptible to conversion to sectarian groups like jehovah's witnesses - the 'carrying capacity' of the population, and that the limit has largely been reached.

Doubting Bro

Is it a coincidence that as of January 2009 the monthly publisher counts have been dropped from the Kingdom Ministry?

No, I don't think its a coincidence at all. There is something else going on but I can't put my finger on it. For an organization that is OBSESSED with numbers, not having them in front of everyone every month is a pretty significant change. They are certainly attempting to reposition themselves but I haven't a clue how.

SBF - Many on this forum seem to assume that very large numbers of Jehovah's Witnesses don't believe in it any more and only keep going because of a mixture of habit, fear of shunning, and social ties. I doubt that very much.

While I agree there is a tendancy to project, I disagree that most are "all in". If they were, they would be following things much more closely. Meeting attendance is not nearly as good as it once was (from my personal observations), the urgency in service just isn't there, "higher" education is being villified yet my personal observation from 3 different parts of the US with elder/ms kids is that it is being for the most part ignored, entertainment choices are definately not in line with WTS guidelines. Basically, my personal observations among JWs that most in the congregation would consider strong is that they would be considered weak JWs 20 years ago. The level of committment just isn't as strong as it once was.

I do agree with you that they could once again return to strong growth, but the only way that will happen is the rise of another Franz like oracle who can get the masses energized again. Apathy is their single biggest organizational issue in my opinion. Get folks excited about it again, set a date with conviction and I think you would see more committment from the rank & file. But, then you would run the risk of having a great disappointment again. But, you could at least get more short term growth.

88

British Sociologist Predicts Possible Collapse in Jehovah's Witness Numbers

by slimboyfat in

jw
friends

a newly published article by british sociologist david voas argues jehovah's witnesses may be about to experience a collapse in numbers.

contrary to claims by american sociologist rodney stark who predicts strong future growth for jehovah's witnesses, voas shows that jehovah's witnesses' efforts at recruiting new members have become increasingly unsuccessful over the past few decades: the rate of increase has steadily declined, and the number of hours each publisher must preach to produce an extra convert has gone up substantially.

voas suggests a reason for the stagnation may be that there is a natural limit to the number of people in a given population that are susceptible to conversion to sectarian groups like jehovah's witnesses - the 'carrying capacity' of the population, and that the limit has largely been reached.

Doubting Bro

Very interesting article. I tend to think that stagnation and then a slow but steady decline mainly due to the reasons that Dozy brings up. I know there are a lot of folks who don't understand/fully believe the theology but who are JWs because all their friends and family are and to leave would mean to give them all up. The price is very high to leave.

Now, if something big happened and family groups decided to leave together, then it could come crashing down very quickly. I just don't seem them doing anything to upset the apple cart.

23

The Miracle of Prayer - Samuel Herd, Governing Body Member

by Kosonen in

jw
friends

i found his talk at http://www.jwforum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=69&t=1704.

here is a part of his talk.

is he indicating that we should pray for gb so that jehovah god would open their eyes?.

Doubting Bro

Its this sort of "logic" that pisses me off to no end. Why on earth would a "God of truth" direct that his channel of communication on earth provide incorrect information leading to wrecked lives only to finally relent when enough people begged him to? And, why were these sisters questioning the GB? Weren't they sinning? What exactly is Herd's point?

The mental gymnastics is takes to believe that the WTS is Gods channel given their history is exhausting.

11

Comments you will NOT hear at the Congregation Bible Study Week Starting March 16

by LUKEWARM in

jw
friends

here is this weeks lesson - your comments please.... .

***lvchap.2pp.19-24how canyoumaintainagoodconscience?***.

whyconsidertheconsciencesofothers?.

Doubting Bro

I'm always surprised by the amount of nerve it takes for the WTS writers to write some of this stuff. To the average JW, conscience matters are things that the WTS doesn't want you to do but won't DF you over. As a matter of fact, anytime they move something (like organ transplants, blood "fractions") from DFing to conscience matters, its interpreteted by the rank & file as being "ok now".

Unlike the Mosaic Law, "the law of the Christ" invites its adherents to live more by conscience and principle than by written rules. (Galatians 6:2) Jehovah thus entrusts Christians with extraordinary freedom. However, his Word reminds us never to use that freedom as "a blind for badness." (1 Peter 2:16)

This is the funniest statement of the whole section. The written rules put out by the WTS are just as bad as the written rules put out by the Jewish leaders. If you think that's hyperbole, then read the brochure on appropriate dress and grooming for visiting Bethel. Yes, God would be very offended if you don't wear a suit to a book publishing factory!

57

Big Love - temple scene and Barb's excommunication

by undercover in

jw
friends

who saw big love last night?.

...and here i thought jws were fucked up.... the whole temple thing was just surreal.

i've always liked barber's adagio, but that music made it even creepier.... jws got nuthin on their temples and ceremonies.... jws are cult lite compared to that shit.... but.... the disciplinary meeting that barb went to with the elders...how deja vu was that?

Doubting Bro

alamb - Thanks for the clarification on shunning. It seemed like Barb was really focused on being cast into darkness more than she was being separated from family.

57

Big Love - temple scene and Barb's excommunication

by undercover in

jw
friends

who saw big love last night?.

...and here i thought jws were fucked up.... the whole temple thing was just surreal.

i've always liked barber's adagio, but that music made it even creepier.... jws got nuthin on their temples and ceremonies.... jws are cult lite compared to that shit.... but.... the disciplinary meeting that barb went to with the elders...how deja vu was that?

Doubting Bro

Hang on sport (humble). First, Big Love is dealing with Mormons, not JWs. However, as has been discussed numerous times, there are similarities. Certainly the excommunication/disfellowshipping practice is similar. Being cut off forever from family is exactly the same. The only difference that I've noted is the everlasting cutting off is also in the afterlife (heaven) with the one being cut off cast into eternal darkness as opposed to the JW view of not being resurrected in paradise on earth. The net result is the same.

Secondly, I found the scene moving in that it was very similar to a judicial committee meeting. BTW - I'm still active and have set on the other side of the table from Barb many times. The question about a recording device is standard. I've never seen bags removed but in a high profile case such as the one depicted, I could see that happening. Also, I think there were 5 leaders there as opposed to the standard JC of 3. Again, in high profile cases, JCs don't have to be limited to 3 (see the Flock book for details). Finally, Barb was able to bring a witness to take notes. This is NOT allowed unless the person facing the JC is a minor, then the parent is allowed to sit in, according to the rules. I've heard cases of elders not following the rules regarding this.

The anxiety that the character showed is dead on. She was given a chance to repent which she said no to. She knew the axe was going to fall which of course it did. But, she did what she tought was right despite the consequences. Not saying I'm agreeing with her stance, just that at least she followed her convictions as did the committee however misguided both are.

Honestly, I felt deep shame in having ever participated in JCs. To watch the pain and to think about the pain others have gone through was tough. My heart goes out to all who have had to endure this type of treatment.

Edited - FM am I correct about shunning on the Mormon side?

13

E'noch - What happened?

by elder-schmelder in

bible story book:.

one day jehovah god had e noch tell the people something they did not want to hear.

it was this: god is someday going to destroy all the bad people.

Doubting Bro

Marking for later, love it.

19

Nephilim . Please educate me the best ya can.

by lurk3r in

sigh.

i cannot believe how much the society fudges some thing.

it's starting to get me more than i thought it would.

Doubting Bro

Marking this for future reading.

Thanks Leolaia - this is great stuff.

17

The mancession.

by BurnTheShips in

according to friday's bls report (table a-1, household data), the u.s. economy has lost 4.464 million jobs since dec. 2007. further analysis shows that 78% of the job losses (3.483 million) were jobs held by males, and 22% of the jobs lost (981,000) were jobs held by females (see top chart above).

of the 351,000 decline in february employment (household data), 90% of the job losses were male jobs (315,000), compared to a 37,000 job loss for females (10% of total).. .

further, the february unemployment rate for men was 8.8% vs. 7.3% for women, as the 1.5% male-female gap narrowed just slightly from the all-time historical record male-female jobless rate gap of 1.6% in january.

Doubting Bro

That was funny. Just goes to show that you can use statistics to make any point you want.

BTW, my wife works WAY harder than I ever have.